Originally Posted by Kenbar
Do you see LGD still making 4K Oled panels for 2020 models?
Even in the most wildly-successful scenario for 8K TV sales in 2019, I can't see LG ditching 4K panels in 2020.
First of all, 55" psnels will never go 8K, at least not until 8K is very fully mature.
At 65", LG has done great in thePremium Market because they have 65" 4K WOLEDs selling for $2000 - if they only have 65" 8K WOLEDs selling for at least twice that, their market share will plummet back to 2015/2016 levels. So I'm pretty sure we're going to see both 4K and 8K WOLED panels, at leadt through 2020.
At 75/77", I would not see LG use the opportunity to introduce the 75" panel they'll need for their 10.5G fab, but even there, they've just made a great deal at that size by introducing the 77C8 for close to $5K (discounted) and if that gets replaced
by an 8K 75" for twice that orice, sales volumes and market share will plummet.
So at 75/77", I would not be surprised to see bith a 4K 77" and an 8K 75" in 2020. And eventually, certainly once the 10.5G fab has ramped, I'd expect the 77" 4K to be end-of-lifed in favor of the 75" 8K...
So going back to the 1080p/4K transition, 75/77" is almost certainly the new 55", and it is possible
that 65" fully transitions to 8K as well, but I expect LG to be cautios about that and only (possibly) ditch 4K 65" WOLEDs if and when they can be manufactured at close to price parity with a 4K 65" WOLED (which may be never, or al least take a long time).
The focus on HFR, VRR and BFI is very good news for 4K WOLEDs - they will always have refresh rates that are intrinsically twice as fast as 8K WOLEDs (and require 1/2 to 1/4 the number of TCON controllers...
I see a pathway to a $1000 65" 4K WOLED once the 10.5G fab is fully ramped. It'll take much, much longer for 8K 65" WOLEDs to reach that pricepoint.
As LG continues to increase manufacturing capacity, that means they must expand below the Premium Market.
That will eventually mean 49" WOLEDs (some are rumoring this year), and it's almost certain to mean lower-cost 4K 55" and 65" WOLEDs...
So if your interested in 65" @ 4K, I believe you have a pretty-long runway, but if you are interested in 77" 4K WOLED (as am I), 2020 may be the last year before the window closes...